Category Archives: Internet risk management strategies

Further Hardin Debunking

yacouba.jpg Regarding Perry’s comment to the previous post, the point is that the specific example on which Hardin based his thesis, the one everyone cites in support of it, is not borne out by the evidence, not that he presented any evidence for it in the first place.

Further, that it’s not a tragedy in the sense Hardin meant: that of a Greek tragedy in which a flaw of character inevitably leads to the demise of the protagonist. Individuals are not inevitably disposed to claw out their own at the expense of everyone else. Sometimes people realize that there really is such a thing as the common good; that benefiting everyone benefits themselves.

Yes, I know about the Sahara and the Sahel; I’ve been there; I’ve seen the goats gnawing away at everything.

The solution is not state central planning: you cite Chinese lakes; I’ll cite the Aral Sea.

The solution is also not privatization of the commons: look at the wildfires in the U.S. west exacerbated by subdivisions built in forests.

Solutions that work seem to involve combinations of innovation, education, and especially cooperation. Like this one:

In the late 1970s, when the problems of desertification, combined with population growth, drought and grinding poverty in West Africa first began to get sustained global attention, the prognosis was mostly gloom and doom. And as has been well documented, foreign aid has been less than successful in improving matters. In Yahenga, Reij and Fabore note, efforts to modernize agriculture through large-scale mechanized operations usually failed, for a variety of reasons. The spread of zai hole planting spearheaded by Sawadogo was mostly carried out by the local farmers themselves, with limited support from the government or foreign donors. Those with access to labor dug the holes, and used local sources of organic manure to fill them.

A tree grows in the Sahel, Andrew Leonard, How the World Works, Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2006 11:22 PDT

The “free market” isn’t enough. Cooperation on scales from local to global is also needed. And it does happen, despite Garrett Hardin’s myth that it can’t.

-jsq

Debunking the Tragedy of the Commons

x7579e05.gif Interesting article here making a point that should have been obvious for forty years. When Garrett Hardin published his famous article about the “tragedy of the commons” in Science in December 1968, he cited no evidence whatsoever for his assertion that a commons would always be overgrazed; that community-owned resources would always be mismanaged. Quite a bit of evidence was already available, but he ignored it, because it said quite the opposite: villagers would band together to manage their commons, including setting limits (stints) on how many animals any villager could graze, and they would enforce those limits.

Finding evidence for Hardin’s thesis is much harder:

The only significant cases of overstocking found by the leading modern expert on the English commons involved wealthy landowners who deliberately put too many animals onto the pasture in order to weaken their much poorer neighbours’ position in disputes over the enclosure (privatisation) of common lands (Neeson 1993: 156).

Hardin assumed that peasant farmers are unable to change their behaviour in the face of certain disaster. But in the real world, small farmers, fishers and others have created their own institutions and rules for preserving resources and ensuring that the commons community survived through good years and bad.

Debunking the `Tragedy of the Commons’, By Ian Angus, Links, International Journal of Socialist Renewal, August 24, 2008

So privatization is not, as so many disciples of Hardin have argued, the cure for the non-existant tragedy of the commons. Rather, privatization can be the enemy of the common management of common resources.

What does this have to do with risk management? Well, insurance is the creation of a managed commons by pooling resources. Catastrophe bonds are another form of pooled resources, that is, a form of a commons.

On the Internet, the big problem with fighting risks like phishing, pharming, spam, and DDoS attacks is that the victims will fail if they go it alone. The Internet is a commons, and pretending that it isn’t is the problem. Most people and companies don’t abuse the Internet. But a few, such as spam herders and some extremist copyright holders (MPAA, RIAA), do. They need to be given stints by the village.

-jsq

Paypal Says Old IE is Like Car Without Seat Belt: EV SSL blocking

bullet-details-ev-ssl.jpg
The eBay-owned company, which runs a Web-based payment system that allows the transfer of funds between bank accounts and credit cards, said browsers that do not have support for blocking identity theft-related Web sites or for EV SSL (Extended Validation Secure Sockets Layer) certificates are considered “unsafe” for financial transactions.

“In our view, letting users view the PayPal site on one of these browsers is equal to a car manufacturer allowing drivers to buy one of their vehicles without seat belts,” said PayPal Chief Information Security Officer Michael Barrett.

…

Barrett only mentioned old, out-of-support versions of Microsoft’s Internet Explorer among this group of “unsafe browsers,” but it’s clear his warning extends to Apple’s Safari browser, which offers no anti-phishing protection and does not support the use of EV SSL certificates.

— BPayPal Plans to Ban Unsafe Browsers, By Ryan Naraine, EWeek.com, 2008-04-17

Now on the one hand, I think EV SSL is color-coded checklist security candy: Continue reading →

Auditing Georgia Government Security

93177422govheadshot3finalpreview.jpg Georgia’s governor wants to standardize information security reporting across the entire state government:
The Executive Order calls for a single set of information security reporting standards for all agencies to follow. Currently, state agencies use a variety of reporting standards, making it difficult to measure information security across state government or to track progress from year to year.

Governor Perdue has directed the Georgia Technology Authority (GTA) to work with the Georgia Department of Audits and Accounts and the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget to develop a reporting format and required content for agency information security reports. Each agency will be responsible for reporting to GTA at the end of the fiscal year. GTA will compile agency reports into a single Enterprise Information Security Report, available by October 31 of each year.

— Gov. Perdue Signs Executive Order Strengthening Georgia’s Information Technology Security, News Report, Government Technology, Mar 20, 2008

I think this is a good move. Now how about monthly reporting in a publicly visible web page.

-jsq

Traffic Control Viewed as ISP Risk

pirates.jpg Certain ISPs plan to spend a lot of money throttling, stifling, policing copyrights, campaigning and lobbying to control content of information flow through their networks. They might want to look at what’s happening in China:
Beijing has recently added a new weapon to its arsenal of surveillance technologies, a system it believes to be a modern marvel: the Golden Shield. It took eight years and $700 million to build, and its mission is to “purify” the Internet — an apparently urgent task. “Whether we can cope with the Internet is a matter that affects the development of socialist culture, the security of information, and the stability of the state,” President Hu Jintao said in January.

The Golden Shield — the latest addition to what is widely referred to as the Great Firewall of China — was supposed to monitor, filter, and block sensitive online content. But only a year after completion, it already looks doomed to fail. True, surveillance remains widespread, and outspoken dissidents are punished harshly. But my experience as a correspondent in China for seven years suggests that the country’s stranglehold on the communications of its citizens is slipping: Bloggers and other Web sources are rapidly supplanting Communist-controlled news outlets. Cyberprotests have managed to bring about an important constitutional change. And ordinary Chinese citizens can circumvent the Great Firewall and evade other forms of police observation with surprising ease. If they know how.

— The Great Firewall: China’s Misguided — and Futile — Attempt to Control What Happens Online, By Oliver August, WIRED MAGAZINE: ISSUE 15.11, 10.23.07 | 12:00 AM

And if they don’t know how, that article provides tips. Continue reading →

Sony Rootkitting: How It Happened

sonyrootkit.gif Here’s a paper about Sony and the Rootkit:

While Sony BMG’s customers first became aware of the dangers posed by the rootkit through media reports following Russinovich’s October 31 announcement, the company was on notice that its product contained a rootkit, at the very least, four weeks earlier.12 Finnish anti-virus software developer F-Secure contacted Sony BMG on October 4, 2005, alerting it to the presence of the rootkit.13 Of course, First4Internet, as the developer that chose to incorporate the rootkit into its design, necessarily knew of its presence from the outset.

— THE MAGNIFICENCE OF THE DISASTER: RECONSTRUCTING THE SONY BMG ROOTKIT INCIDENT, By Deirdre K. Mulligan & Aaron K. Perzanowski

Yet Sony apparently thought that they could still sneak a rootkit onto CDs its customers paid for. The customers knew better, because Amazon reviews told them, and sales CDs plumetted as soon as rootkit-infested versions were issued.

This maybe illustrates three points:

Continue reading →

Chinese Honeynet Project: Botnets Are Sneaky and Evolving; Need Adaptive Distributed Counter

lifetime.png The subject is my interpretation of a sixteen page paper by a joint Chinese-German project to examine botnets in China.
Botnets have become the first-choice attack platform for network-based attacks during the last few years. These networks pose a severe threat to normal operations of the public Internet and affect many Internet users. With the help of a distributed and fully-automated botnet measurement system, we were able to discover and track 3,290 botnets during a period of almost twelve months.

— Characterizing the IRC-based Botnet Phenomenon, Jianwei Zhuge1 , Thorsten Holz2 , Xinhui Han1 , Jinpeng Guo1 , and Wei Zou1 Peking University Institute of Computer Science and Technology Beijing, China, University of Mannheim Laboratory for Dependable Distributed Systems Mannheim, Germany, Reihe Informatik. TR-2007-010

The paper provides many interesting statistics, such as only a small percent of botnets are detected by the usual Internet security companies. But the main point is exactly that a distributed and adaptive honeypot botnet detection network was able to detect and observe botnets in action and to get data for all those statistics. Trying to deal with an international adaptive botnet threat via static software or occasional centralized patches isn’t going to work.

Some readers conclude that this paper shows that reputation services don’t work,because they don’t show most botnets. I conclude that current reputation services don’t work because they aren’t using an adaptive distributed honeypot network to get their information, and because their published reputation information isn’t tied to economic incentives for the affected ISPs and software vendors, such as higher insurance rates.

-jsq

ResNet for the Home: Why Don’t Last-Mile ISPs Detect, Clean, and Insure Home Machines?

resnet.jpg Colleges and universities often provide residential networks (resnets) for their students. There are companies that do that, such as Apogee Networks, plus value added services such as patching, installing, and configuring secure and virus-free software. Last-mile ISPs could do that too. They could go farther: they could detect, clean, and insure home machines.

Now they may not want to do this because they might incur legal liability. But that’s what insurance is for. And they might not want to do it because it’s not their core competence. But they could offer such services through a third party. Why don’t they?

-jsq

Storm Botnet Movie

Cory always has a way with words:
The Storm Worm botnet (thought to be the largest network of compromised machines in the world) has begun to figure out which security researchers are trying to disrupt its command-and-control systems and knock them offline with unmanagable crapfloods from its zillions of zombie machines.

—StormWorm botnet lashes out at security researchers, Cory Doctorow, BoingBoing, October 24, 2007 12:35 PM

But Michael Froomkin found a movie illustrating the situation:

Hiding inside while hordes of zombies dance outside and eat away at the doors; yep, that’s pretty much the state of Internet security.

-jsq

APWG in Pittsburgh and Fraud in Japan

gm2007logo.jpg The Anti-Phishing Working Group is having one of its periodic member meetings, this time in Pittsburgh. Probably I shouldn’t report too much detail, but I’ll say that interesting things are going on worldwide that may spread to other countries. For example, in Japan it seems that fake programming sites are more popular than phishing. Also, if I heard correctly, most phishing in the Japanese language originates from phishers in Japan. This would make sense, since it’s very hard for foreigners to write well enough to pretend to be Japanese. So that one probably won’t spread too widely, but the fake programming scam could.

My favorite is the history attack. World War II ended on 15 August 1945 in Japan, so a timeline of that war can get a lot of hits on a war’s end link in August of any year. Who would have known history could be so popular?

Meanwhile, during Carnival in Brazil, nobody reports malware, so there’s a dip in measurements…. Then and the rest of the year, sophisticated personalized social engineering attacks seem to be popular in Brazil.

-jsq